Best Weapon Against Banditry Is Paycheck, Not Another Security Equipment

The establishment of the Northern Nigeria Security Trust Fund (NNSTF) by the 19 Northern State Governors is one of the most significant regional policy initiatives in recent years. Led by the Chairman of the Northern States Governors’ Forum and Governor of Gombe State, Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya, the initiative recognises the devastating impact that terrorism, banditry and kidnapping have had on Northern Nigeria’s economy, social cohesion and public confidence. Under the arrangement, each of the 19 northern states, together with their local government councils, will contribute N1 billion monthly for twelve months, creating an estimated N228 billion regional security fund. The resources are intended to strengthen intelligence gathering, surveillance technology, logistics, rapid-response operations and support for federal security agencies.

There is little doubt that these investments are necessary. Security agencies require adequate equipment, intelligence and logistics to confront violent criminal groups. However, an important question deserves equal attention. Can Northern Nigeria ever spend its way out of insecurity without first addressing the conditions that continuously produce recruits for criminal organizations?

For decades, successive governments have invested billions of naira in military operations, security hardware and emergency responses. No one knows exactly how much money and other resources have been spent combating insecurity in the region. While these efforts have achieved tactical successes, insecurity has persisted because the underlying economic and social conditions remain largely unchanged. Growing up near Kurmi Market in Kano, I witnessed the transition from the relatively abundant employment opportunities of the 1980s to the declining job market of the 1990s and 2000s. That experience taught me an uncomfortable truth. Insecurity is not merely a security problem. It is also an employment problem.

Today, across the north, millions of young people face limited opportunities for education, skills development and productive employment. In many rural communities, agriculture remains largely subsistence-based, industries are scarce, and formal jobs are almost nonexistent. Under these conditions, criminal groups find it easier to recruit unemployed youths than legitimate businesses do. This is why the Northern Nigeria Security Trust Fund should not become merely another security expenditure account. It should become an investment vehicle for transforming the region’s economy.

If the proposed N228 billion is used as 20 per cent equity to attract development finance, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds and private-sector partners, the investment envelope could realistically grow to approximately N1.14 trillion. Such an investment would be sufficient to establish one of Africa’s largest agro-industrial employment programmes. Therefore, instead of concentrating primarily on security procurement, we should establish a Northern Nigeria Agro-Industrial Employment Zone (NNAEZ). The concept goes far beyond traditional farming. It would create a network of modern agro-industrial parks strategically located across Northern Nigeria and linked to surrounding farming communities through contract farming, processing industries, logistics hubs, vocational training centres, export facilities and entrepreneurship incubator centres.

The objective would not simply be to produce more agricultural commodities. The objective would be to build complete value chains that generate sustainable employment, increase exports and stimulate industrial development. The investment should prioritise commodities that combine high export demand with high labour intensity. These include sesame, gum Arabic, soybean, beef and dairy, shea, cotton and textile manufacturing. The north already enjoys natural comparative advantages in these commodities. Each of the 19 northern states produces one or more of these commodities. What has been missing is coordinated investment in processing, logistics, technology and export infrastructure.

Rather than exporting raw produce, the region should export premium processed products such as sesame oil, soybean protein, halal beef, dairy products, refined shea butter, textile products and high-grade gum arabic. Every stage of processing creates additional jobs. Every factory creates suppliers. Every supplier creates demand for farmers. Every farmer supports a household. These are the multiplier effects of sound public policy. This is how economies become secure. We are in the current insecurity quagmire because past leaders ignored the warning signs. That is why it is encouraging that the current Northern governors have decided to bury their differences for the common good. As a famous line from the book ‘Why Nations Fail’ by Nobel laureates, Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, beautifully puts it “Poor countries are poor because those who have power make choices that create poverty.”

Employment is the strongest form of security. Therefore, we have to make clear choices for employment-generating businesses. Unlike conventional security interventions, an agro-industrial employment programme attacks insecurity at its source. Based on our recent estimates, the proposed NNAEZ could generate more than 250,000 direct jobs, between 500,000 and 600,000 indirect jobs, and improve the livelihoods of over two million people through contract farming, rural enterprises and supporting businesses.

Young people who own businesses, manage farms, operate machinery, process agricultural products and participate in export markets are far less likely to become recruits for criminal organisations. Employment restores dignity. It strengthens families. It rebuilds communities. It gives people something valuable to lose. In the long run, this is a more sustainable foundation for peace than security operations alone.

There are excellent recent examples that show compelling evidence that sustained employment can significantly reduce insecurity and social instability. Let me cite two of them. In 1960, Vietnam transformed one of the world’s poorest rural economies into a global agricultural export powerhouse by investing in smallholder agriculture, agro-processing and export-oriented manufacturing. Today, it is among the world’s leading exporters of rice, coffee, pepper, seafood and cashew products, creating millions of rural jobs and contributing to long-term social stability. More recently, Rwanda, following the 1994 genocide, placed agriculture, agro-processing and rural enterprise development at the centre of national reconstruction. By creating economic opportunities in rural communities, it complemented security reforms with inclusive economic growth.

While each country’s circumstances differ, they demonstrate an important lesson. That is, lasting security is reinforced when governments invest in productive employment alongside law enforcement. The proposed NNAEZ is not simply an agricultural project. It is an integrated economic transformation strategy. It combines: Modern commercial agriculture. Smallholder outgrower schemes. Food and industrial processing. Textile manufacturing.

Leather processing. Cold-chain logistics. Export infrastructure. Renewable energy. Entrepreneurship development. Research and innovation. Such integration creates multiplier effects across the regional economy while building internationally competitive industries.

None of these suggests that intelligence gathering, surveillance technology and military operations are unnecessary. We will continue to require capable security institutions. However, no amount of surveillance technology can permanently defeat insecurity if millions of young people remain unemployed and economically excluded. A region cannot arrest its way to prosperity. Neither can it purchase lasting peace solely through security hardware. Lasting peace is built when citizens have opportunities to earn legitimate incomes, build businesses and participate in a growing economy. The Northern Nigeria Security Trust Fund, therefore, has an opportunity to become far more than a security intervention. It can become the foundation of a new economic future for the region.

If Northern Nigeria truly seeks lasting peace, the most powerful security investment may not be another convoy of patrol vehicles or another consignment of surveillance equipment. It may simply be millions of decent jobs. For in the end, the strongest defense against insecurity is not fear of the law. It is hope for the future

By Baba El-Yakubu